Financial Support: European Commission
The overall objective of the action was to contribute towards a solution of the Cyprus Conflict. Its special objective was to produce up-to-date knowledge about public opinion towards the Cyprus Conflict in North Cyprus and to find out, if the pro-unification attitude of the population expresses in the referenda of 2004 still existed.
“Solution” was defined as a term open to interpretation. On the one hand, it was supposed to mean the eventual re-unification of the island, dependent if it were possible to identify and overcome the remaining obstacles for a comprehensive settlement. This scenario was regarded as more desirable both in terms of legality and practicality; yet the negative aspects of by now 35 years of separation also had to be taken into account. International organisations as well as scholars agreed that there was a lack of up-to-date representative survey data from North Cyprus. Research mainly focused on the Greek Cypriot south, particularly after the Greek Cypriots rejected the Annan-Plan in 2004.
The project challenged the popular notion that only the Greek Cypriots would have to be won over for a re-unification settlement within the framework of a revised Annan-Plan, with the Turkish Cypriot approval of the plan in 2004 being regarded as a once-and-for-all statement to re-unify the island. The lack of attention paid to North Cyprus, however, meant that this second notion might be misleading. The project intended to address this need. It consisted of three main activities:
A representative survey with a questionnaire covering political, social and economic issues, with some 900 respondents and series of in-depth interviews (about 40) with opinion leaders;
An international conference held in North Cyprus, in which the survey results shall be presented, interpreted and analysed.
A publication in English to be made available to international organisations, the interested public and scholars.
The target group was to be the entire population of North Cyprus (i.e. including both “Turkish Cypriots” and “Turkish Immigrants”). The final beneficiaries were to be both the target groups and international organisations (both of official and NGO-status). The target groups were to be given an opportunity to voice their concerns in face-to-face interviews. International organisations, academics, the EU and other international agencies were to benefit from the project by being given up-to-date material about public opinion within North Cyprus in English.
Results
The outcome of the survey and interview series were that, by now, a majority in the northern part of Cyprus was opposed to a re-unification solution in the shape of the Annan-Plan. Several reasons were given for this result: first, the Greek Cypriot rejection of the plan in 2004 demonstrated that a solution the northern Cypriot population could live with seemed unacceptable to the Greek Cypriots, thus making any future settlement acceptable to these unacceptable for the population in the north.
Second, economic developments, particularly the boom of the Turkish economy and the accompanying influx of Turkish capital into the northern part of Cyprus had raised living standards substantially. The opening of the borders with the Republic of Cyprus from 2003 onwards had given Turkish Cypriots the opportunity to work in the south for substantially higher wages. On the other hand, the daily contacts between the two community had the effect of re-fuelling the feeling of conflict, which had been rather dormant during the many years of complete separation. Third, the Turkish immigrant (“settler”) population, an important voting group, expressed fears of losing their homes and lands (many of which were owned by Greek Cypriots), if not their right to continue living on the island. All in all, it turned out that a majority of the population regarded a two-state solution as preferable to unification.
The conference, the participants of which came from both sides of the Green Line and included foreign researchers as well demonstrated that considerable disagreements over historical “guilt” and political “responsibility” for the division, and the meaning of “solution” continued to exist; it thus supported the conclusion that a re-unification was unlikely in the foreseeable future. All participants agreed that international actors as well as actors from Cyprus should rather focus on making the conflict manageable than to seek a comprehensive settlement.
Publications
Tilman Lüdke: The Cyprus Conflict 40 Years after the Division: Problems and the Possibility of Non-Solution, Freiburg: Arnold-Bergstraesser-Institute 2015.